Latest Stats

[Dave]

I think the total number of cases YTD is not really of any benefit but the rolling average last 7 days probably is more relevant.That gives an indication of the number of people out there that are likely to be carrying the virus. OK, Sunday's figure is probably not the best to go on but the average for the last 6 days ( can't go back a page for 7!) is 10 new cases per day. What is the population of Conwy? 117,000 or there about . The chances of coming in to contact with someone who has the virus is actually pretty slim at the moment. The figure of 813 per 100,000 looks frightening with 123-1 chance of getting the virus ( although only a fool would back a horse at those odds) but when the figures are looked at closely there have been 423 deaths across the whole North Wales region that has a population of 698,400.
On average you stand a 1651-1 chance of dying from Corvid-19.
But then you need to break down the stats even further and that will show the figures for specific age groups vary tremendously with the over 80's being most vulnerable. Start looking in to it further still and it might then reveal clusters of deaths in care homes and hospitals and then the odds of catching it and dying are even greater....unless you are over 80 and in a care home.Even then it's been reduced now as care homes have stopped visitors.
So the point I'm making is that these daily figures can be very misleading. Some people are living in total fear of even stepping outside their homes.
Don't get me wrong. We need to treat the virus very seriously and take basic precautions such as wearing masks in indoor public places, maybe in some outdoor ones too and keep to social distancing and avoiding crowds (and preventing crowds forming). What I disagree with is the fear factor pressurising decisions that effect the whole community causing economic chaos and hardship to many.
Ironically, those most at risk of death are those that are probably as a group the least effected by economic hardship. They have pensions, no mortgage, no jobs to worry about. Let them protect themselves in any way they feel fit. Allow them a decent window of opportunity when only they are allowed to go shopping, go to a pub, visit the cinema etc. Easily done I would have thought. For the rest of the population, obey the safety rules and just get on with living as per normal.
The only flaw in my thinking is that if you do happen to catch the virus we don't really know what the long term effect is...now known as Long Corvid and the other consideration is that if you are seriously effected and hospitalised then someone working for the NHS is put at risk. However, the stop start  lockdowns of varying conditions across the four nations of the UK have not worked so far and there is nothing to suggest they will in the future.
Back to my first point, putting the fear of meeting your maker doesn't help coming to sensible decision making when it comes to the way forward. 

[Ian]

It's always extremely tricky when dealing with statistics where the provenance is so uncertain. We can't ever know, with any real certainty, how many have died because of Covid or how many have actually caught the disease.

But there are some things we know with depressing certainty.

1. The older you are, the greater the risk of a fatal outcome.
2. It's one of the most infectious diseases in existence.
3. Being male, having a blood group other than O, being overweight  and having any underlying or chronic health condition isn't good news.
4. There's no cure.
6. There's no vaccine, despite what some might be claiming.
7. It's unique in that so-called 'long-Covid'–lowered quality of life for months and potentially years after infection–is a real concern.

Finally, I've seen numerous stats claiming to show the mortality rate, but when Scientific American, New Scientist and Nature are all producing widely differing figures, it seems anyone hazarding a guess at the moment is as likely to be right as blindfolded darts player.
Based purely on the world-wide stats it seems there's about a 1 in 31 chance of death overall, but that figure hides a multitude of variances.

On balance, though, the figures you post, Steve. are providing a service. Ten times as many read these forums as register on them, so I think best to keep them coming.  No one has to read them and people are free to make up their own minds.

[SteveH]

A further 133 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in North Wales in the past 24 hours, according to figures released by Public Health Wales.         ref DP

The death toll in the region has increased by one the past 24 hours, now totalling 427, while fatalities across Wales stand at 1,643, a rise of three deaths recorded in the same period.

Across the country, 752 new positive tests have been recorded, bringing the total to 27,624.

In the area covered by Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, there are now 6,088 cases as of today (October 6).

Across Wales, there were 10,518 tests carried out in the last 24 hours - bringing the total to 894,740 since the beginning of the pandemic.

Betsi Cadwaladr: 133 new cases - total 6,222
Anglesey:  4 new cases - total 534
Gwynedd: 8 new cases - total 789
Conwy:  10 new cases - total 963
Denbighshire: 17 new cases - total  1,018
Flintshire: 54 new cases - total 1,190
Wrexham: 41 new cases - total 1,728


PHW          https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary   
Conwy
821.7 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       963 confirmed
Testing episodes:       23,918  (20,407 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.0%

BCUHB
889.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       6,222 confirmed
Testing episodes:       133,752  (19,119 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.7%

[SteveH]

A further 117 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in North Wales in the past 24 hours, according to figures released by Public Health Wales.

The death toll in the region has remained the same at 427, while fatalities across Wales stand at 1,644, a rise of one death in the same period.

Across the country, 638 new positive tests have been recorded, bringing the total to 28,262.

In the area covered by Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, there are now 6,339 cases as of today October 8

Across Wales, there were 9,966 tests carried out in the last 24 hours - bringing the total to 904,706 since the beginning of the pandemic.                                                                     ref DP

Betsi Cadwaladr: 117 new cases - total 6,339

Anglesey:  3 new cases - total 537
Gwynedd: 9 new cases - total 798
Conwy:  15 new cases - total 978
Denbighshire: 17 new cases - total 1,035
Flintshire: 36 new cases - total 1,226
Wrexham: 37 new cases - total 1,765


PHW                   https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

Conwy
834.4 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       978 confirmed
Testing episodes:       24,126  (20,585 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.1%

BCUHB
906.1 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       6,339 confirmed
Testing episodes:       135,180  (19,324 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.7%

[Dave]

Just announced today, Office of National Statistics estimate 1 in 240 people in England have the virus, 1 in 500 in Scotland and Wales which suggests that stricter lockdown rules do work but come at a huge financial cost.

[DVT]

What information do they collect if you go for a Covid-19 test?

Daily we keep seeing the number of tests and the percentage of positives - which has dropped slightly (by about 1/2 a percentage point) in the past month.  So, it is going the right way, or is it?  As questioned before, how relevant is this info.

When you get tested are you asked to give details of where you have been in the previous few days?  To me it would be relevant if you have been somewhere crowded and your test is positive - and can be pin-pointed to a certain location, function or gathering.  My son works in the hospitality trade and worked when the cheap meals were on offer,  it was very busy - have any of the local positives been people who took advantage of the cheap food, for example?

A few weeks ago we saw massed crowds on beaches in places such as Barmouth, also queues on Snowdon.  How many of those people have now been tested positive?  I would suspect that Barmouth has a low positive rate because the people gathered there will have dispersed to other parts, and the locals kept their distance.

But places such as Liverpool and Manchester would have seen the people who had gathered still being relatively local, hence the current situation of a high positive rate.

I am sure there is a lot more info being gathered by the ONS than is published (plus the media only publish the headline info) - hopefully they are making use of it.  And it the questions are not being asked, then why not?

[SteveH]

Confusing times, too much poor quality information.

A couple of ONS links that may be useful....

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19interactivemap/2020-06-12

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot: England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 9 October 2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/englandwalesandnorthernireland9october2020#number-of-people-in-wales-who-had-covid-19


These are today's coronavirus figures for North Wales as cases continue to rise in all counties.
https://www.northwalespioneer.co.uk/news/18783175.todays-coronavirus-figures-north-wales-cases-continue-rise-counties/

[SteveH]

OVER 130 new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed across our region by Public Health Wales (PHW) today.   ref Pioneer

There have now been 6,630 lab-confirmed cases of the virus from the combined counties that make up the North Wales region since the outbreak of the pandemic - after more incidents were confirmed in the latest figures released today.

Public Health Wales confirmed that the 132 of today’s 627 newly confirmed Welsh cases were from the northern region and can be broken down as such:

Anglesey – Nine (12.8 per 100,000 population as of today)
Conwy – 28 (23.9 per 100,000 population as of today)
Denbighshire – 17 (17.8 per 100,000 population as of today)
Flintshire – 38 (24.3 per 100,000 population as of today)
Gwynedd – 12 (9.6 per 100,000 population as of today)
Wrexham – 28 (20.6 per 100,000 population as of today)

Figures from the Office for National Statistics, which are considered a stronger indicator of the overall impact of the virus, and which are based on all deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate, stand at 576 for the health board area.
BCUHB stats:
Confirmed cases as of October 10 – 6,630
New cases from October 10 – 132
Rate of new cases per 100,000 from September 21 to 27 – Anglesey (10.0), Conwy (46.1), Denbighshire (37.6), Flintshire (53.8 Gwynedd (14.5), Wrexham (43.4)
Rate of new cases per 100,000 in week to September 28 to October 4 – Anglesey (14.3), Conwy (52.0), Denbighshire (60.6), Flintshire (70.5), Gwynedd (55.4), Wrexham (69.1)


PHW
Conwy
Cases:       1,036 confirmed
Testing episodes:       24,589  (20,980 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.2%

BCUHB
947.7 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       6,630 confirmed
Testing episodes:       137,904  (19,713 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.8%

[SteveH]

OVER 100 new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed across our region by Public Health Wales (PHW) today.   ref Pioneer

There have now been 6,745 lab-confirmed cases of the virus from the combined counties that make up the North Wales region since the outbreak of the pandemic - after more incidents were confirmed in the latest figures released today.

Public Health Wales confirmed that the 115 of today’s 596 newly confirmed Welsh cases were from the northern region and can be broken down as such:

• Anglesey – Eight (11.4 per 100,000 population as of today)
• Conwy – 18 (15.4 per 100,000 population as of today)
• Denbighshire – 11 (11.5 per 100,000 population as of today)
• Flintshire – 33 (21.1 per 100,000 population as of today)
• Gwynedd – 16 (12.8 per 100,000 population as of today)
• Wrexham – 29 (21.3 per 100,000 population as of today)


PHW
Conwy
Cases:       1,054 confirmed
Testing episodes:       24,851  (21,203 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.2%

BCUHB
964.2 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       6,745 confirmed
Testing episodes:       139,536  (19,946 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.8%

[SteveH]

Four more people have died with coronavirus and 487 have tested positive, according to the latest figures from Public Health Wales (PHW).

It said there had been a total of 1,673 deaths and 30,608 people have tested positive since the pandemic began.
Three of the deaths were reported by Cwm Taf health board which has seen an outbreak at three of its hospitals.

The total number of people who have been tested in Wales is 608,423, with 577,815 testing negative.
A total of 10,971 daily tests were carried out on behalf of PHW on Sunday.

Cont  BBC report 39 minutes ago...........   https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51888681

PHW
Conwy
919.8 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       1,078 confirmed
Testing episodes:       25,151  (21,459 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.3%

BCUHB
984.6 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       6,888 confirmed
Testing episodes:       141,211  (20,186 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.9%

[Ian]

We're clearly in the second wave and the fact that they're bringing the Nightingale hospitals online and that admissions are now worse than they were at the high point of the pandemic in the UK suggests we're in for a bumpy ride.

[SteveH]

Full list of coronavirus cases and deaths in North Wales and in the North West of England

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/full-list-coronavirus-cases-deaths-19093428

[SteveH]

A further 184 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in North Wales in the past 24 hours, according to figures released by Public Health Wales.

No new deaths in the region have been recorded overnight - with the total remaining at 429 - while fatalities across Wales stand at 1,678, a rise of five deaths in the same period.

Across the country, 764 new positive tests have been recorded, bringing the total to 31,370.

In the area covered by Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, there are now 7,072 cases as of today (October 13).

Across Wales, there were 11,645 tests carried out in the last 24 hours - bringing the total to 959,062 since the beginning of the pandemic.

Betsi Cadwaladr: 184 new cases - total 7,072

Anglesey:  10 new cases - total 571
Gwynedd:  22 new cases - total 905
Conwy:  29 new cases - total 1,107
Denbighshire: 24 new cases - total 1,124
Flintshire: 51 new cases - total 1,418
Wrexham: 48 new cases - total 1,947


PHW
Conwy
Cases:       1,107 confirmed                                               21 cases in August....160 cases in Sep....192 cases in Oct. to date
Testing episodes:       25,496  (21,754 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.3%

BCUHB
1,010.9 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       7,072 confirmed
Testing episodes:       143,112  (20,457 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.9%

[SteveH]

The places in Wales where coronavirus is growing fastest
We've compared incidence rates in every part of Wales over the last week to monitor which areas are seeing the greatest changes in coronavirus infections

"The north Wales county (Conwy) has seen a rise of 92% in a week with the infection rate now standing at 122.9 per 100,000 people."

cont https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/coronavirus-cases-increasing-fastest-wales-19097427

[SteveH]

A further 152 cases of coronavirus have been recorded in North Wales in the past 24 hours, according to figures released by Public Health Wales.

No new deaths in the region have been recorded overnight - with the total remaining at 429 - while fatalities across Wales stand at 1,688, a rise of 10 deaths in the same period.

Across the country, 946 new positive tests have been recorded, bringing the total to 32,316.
In the area covered by Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, there are now 7,224 cases as of today (October 14).

Across Wales, there were 9,726 tests carried out in the last 24 hours - bringing the total to 968,788 since the beginning of the pandemic.

Betsi Cadwaladr: 152 new cases - total 7,224

Anglesey:  6 new cases - total 577
Gwynedd:  16 new cases - total 921
Conwy:  30 new cases - total 1,137
Denbighshire: 21 new cases - total 1,145
Flintshire: 36 new cases - total 1,454
Wrexham: 43 new cases - total 1,990


PHW
Conwy
Cases:       1,137 confirmed                                                  21 cases in August....160 cases in Sep....222 cases in Oct. to date
Testing episodes:       25,821  (22,031 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       4.4%

BCUHB
1,032.7 confirmed cases per 100,000 population

Cases:       7,224 confirmed
Testing episodes:       144,591  (20,669 per 100,000)
Positivity*:       5.0%