Five factors that will decide scale of third Covid-19 wave in Wales this summer
Experts advising the Welsh Government are recommending that indoor activities are moved outdoors this summer
Recent modelling by Swansea University suggest a third wave of coronavirus is “highly likely” in Wales this summer.
Most scenarios indicate a rise in case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths in late July or early August once Covid curbs have been eased.
Swansea’s scientists don’t expect the summer wave to reach the same intensity as previous waves, said Wales’ Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) in its latest report for the Welsh Government.
To reduce the impact of the third wave, TAC's experts are recommending that, where possible, indoor activities are moved outdoors during the summer.
This particularly applies to activities that include “exercise, singing, loud speaking etc”. Another is "laughing".
TAC said the exact timing and scale of the summer wave remains uncertain and will depend on a number of factors.
These include:
The evolution of Covid variants that are more resistant to vaccines
A breakdown in social distancing behaviour
Drop-offs in vaccine supply
The degree of vaccine hesitancy among the young
A fifth factor - still the subject of research - may include the effectiveness of vaccines in reducing Covid transmission, said TAC
In its report, TAC said:
“Personal protective behaviours such as face coverings and hand hygiene will remain important in settings where it is not possible to socially distance at a minimum of two metres, particularly for extended durations.”cont
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/five-factors-decide-scale-third-20469861