National politics

[Hugo]

We should all learn the lessons of mistakes from the past, but don't forget that the Germans weren't that far away from developing the A bomb and do you think that if they had developed it then they wouldn't have used it on the UK?
In  the present day though, could a country like the UK be run by a pacifist and would the other countries follow that example?    Let's be real about it.
It could all be irrelevant anyway as both Labour candidates could lose their seats in the proposed Tory boundary changes.

[born2run]

I don't think the Germans would have used the A bomb on the UK for a variety of different reasons. But that is irrelevant to this debate anyway.

If we are talking about popular opinion and how to please the electorate then know that in the most recent surveys only 37% agree with our involvement in the Iraq war.

[Hugo]

As you quite rightly say it's irrelevant to this debate anyway, as is the most recent surveys that only 37% agree with our involvement in the Iraq war.
Hind sight is a marvellous thing but it is hoped that as a nation we can learn from our mistakes in the past.

We are both Labour supporters but our opinions are still poles apart and I think we'll just have to agree to disagree on Jeremy's competence to be a leader of the Labour Party.

[Bosun]

I have never seen anything like this in all the years of my political interest:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/14/corbyns-team-mistakenly-issues-list-of-mps-who-undermined-leader?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=190377&subid=7995213&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the Parliamentary Labour Party is a complete shambles and a totally ineffective mess. Does anyone possibly think that the rabble of Corbyn, Abbott, Thornberry etc., and (FFS....) Cat Smith can be an effective opposition party, let alone run the country........ 

I've supported Labour values for over forty years; the sadness of the loss of John Smith, the stupidity of the block vote system enabling the Unions to ensure the wrong Miliband was elected leader, but this tragedy that is Corbyn is worse than anything I've seen.

[Ian]

Social media and a marked cultural shift will make it far easier for a new party to emerge, I suspect. Perhaps a New New Labour?

[DaveR]

Social media and a marked cultural shift will make it far easier for a new party to emerge, I suspect. Perhaps a New New Labour?

Its a fascinating situation. I too suspect we will see a breakaway party emerge if Corbyn is re-elected which, may in time, become the 'real' opposition.

[Bosun]

[/quote]
Its a fascinating situation. I too suspect we will see a breakaway party emerge if Corbyn is re-elected which, may in time, become the 'real' opposition.
[/quote]

I think that you may well be right. There are certainly more than enough disenchanted MP's 172 (against 40 that supported Corbyn) and a fair percentage of the British public that would support a proper Labour party.

As I have said before, Corbyn has no ambition to be PM, he knows that will never happen, he wants a Marxist/Leninist/Socialist Workers Protest Party.

[Hugo]

On a January morning 35 years ago, the Labour party split. The gang of four – Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and Bill Rodgers – stepped out in east London’s Limehouse to declare their breakaway Social Democratic party. This anniversary would pass unnoticed, an arcane political footnote, but for the present state of Labour. Is Jeremy Corbyn a reprise of Michael Foot? Might history repeat itself? Pandemonium inside the parliamentary Labour party suggests anything is possible.

It has happened before when the lunatics were running the asylum, those four were very good Labour minded MP's but they could see what the loony left were doing to the party.
Corbyn, McDonnell and some of the others are doing exactly the same and Labour will continue to be just a protest party while they are there.   

[born2run]

There won't be a split. The Unions created the Labour party and whoever the Unions continue to support IS the Labour party. If they did split how would they fund themselves? Maybe sell themselves out to big business and donors like the Tories?

It is clear that the British public want an opposition that is markedly different to the government in power at the moment and the party that can most do that is Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party.

Jeremy will win the leadership election hands downs
MPs will fall into line or leave the party (if their lifestyle and expenses culture mean more to them than the party)
Labour will be seen to be instrumental in stopping the ridiculous grammar school plans (massively opposed by the public) and their popularity will increase and continue to increase and build momentum as it was doing until these MPs decided to shoot themselves (and the party) in the foot by squawking for a new leader after brexit .

[Bosun]

There won't be a split. The Unions created the Labour party and whoever the Unions continue to support IS the Labour party. If they did split how would they fund themselves? Maybe sell themselves out to big business and donors like the Tories?

It is clear that the British public want an opposition that is markedly different to the government in power at the moment and the party that can most do that is Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party.

Jeremy will win the leadership election hands downs
MPs will fall into line or leave the party (if their lifestyle and expenses culture mean more to them than the party)
Labour will be seen to be instrumental in stopping the ridiculous grammar school plans (massively opposed by the public) and their popularity will increase and continue to increase and build momentum as it was doing until these MPs decided to shoot themselves (and the party) in the foot by squawking for a new leader after brexit .

.......the counselling's not going well then......

[Ian]

There won't be a split. The Unions created the Labour party and whoever the Unions continue to support IS the Labour party. If they did split how would they fund themselves?

Do you assume there aren't any major donors with massive financial clout who are Labour supporters but unhappy with JC?

On a January morning 35 years ago, the Labour party split. The gang of four – Roy Jenkins, David Owen, Shirley Williams and Bill Rodgers – stepped out in east London’s Limehouse to declare their breakaway Social Democratic party.

Thanks for that, Hugo;  I"d been trying to think about the 'gang of four' and how things transpired back then, but I suspect it's very different times, now. In those days there were no mobile 'phones, no Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or social media generally. The big question now, I suspect, is whether the money would flow to a break-away party. An interesting scenario presents itself.

The existing Labour MPs who really can't work with JC don't have to stand down now; they could remain, albeit uncomfortably, in their seats but declare themselves part of a 'New party'. There's precedent for that. That would give them enough time to become well known in their constituencies, and face the voters as new party members at the next General Election. I believe the gang of four failed because they effectively stood alone, but if enough fractured from Labour in the house then it could change the political landscape for ever.

[Ian]

Labour will be seen to be instrumental in stopping the ridiculous grammar school plans (massively opposed by the public) and their popularity will increase and continue to increase and build momentum as it was doing until these MPs decided to shoot themselves (and the party) in the foot by squawking for a new leader after brexit .

About May's move on Grammar schools. The proposed Grammar Schools would be nothing like the old ones. But it's clearly a political movement, since she's seeking to appease Tory parents. It's not about equality, since you can achieve that much more quickly simply by eliminating all public schools. And then there's the thorny issue of Faith schools.

I'm not sure you're right, though, when you say "their popularity will increase and continue to increase and build momentum " if only because most voters instinctively mistrust extremes. That's what eventually doomed Thatcher, saw Labour unable to win an election for years in the past and will, I suspect, finish Labour as an electoral force. I don't doubt membership of the Labour Party has rocketed over the past 12 months, but that's not the same as the voters being inclined to vote for them. What it does mean is that JC's leadership has drawn back in a lot of activists who have long felt sidelined by the centrist policy of previous Labour administrations. And that's not necessarily good for the party as a whole.

But we really do live in interesting times. The next few months will be fascinating.

[born2run]

It's impossible to say what will happen, I'm just having a guess. Who would have ever in a million years thought Corbyn would have stood for let alone won the contest in the first place?

Come next election the landscape may be totally different again. One thing I do believe though is that the key to success is getting the young voters - those aged 14 and up now and the non voters. The non voters that I meet always say the same thing to me "I don't vote because they're all the same' clearly Corbyn offers something different and must keep doing so.

[Hugo]

I recorded Question Time last night and watched the programme this morning because of who was on the panel.   It turned out to be a lively and at times a very heated debate but it did show who is the driving force behind the present Labour Party.
John McDonnell said that he's not a Marxist, even though he admitted that he once said he was, so which of John McDonnell's statement is correct?

[born2run]

People can change - wasn't Sillyband called Red Ed at University and promoting Marxism along with his Father?
Tony Blair used to be cool, he was in a band and liked Bruce Springsteen.
Even Churchill switched from the Tories to the Liberals
and It's 'claimed' Farage was in the national front when he was young....so not everyone changes, but you get my point