Employee shortages: Where have all the workers gone?It's not often that economies face the disruption we've endured in the last year, and none of us should be surprised that it's taking the labour market a while to settle down.
But some are wondering whether Covid is triggering an historic rebalancing of power between the bosses and the workers.
No-one in their right mind would compare Covid to the Black Death, which wiped out enough of the workforce in the 14th Century for peasant labour to be in short supply, with the result that farm wages rose by several tens of percent over the following years. Covid has certainly not disrupted employment in anything so direct a fashion.
But pandemics can accelerate social and economic change. In particular, in the last year, Covid has prompted many foreign workers in the UK to return home to sit things out. We can't be sure all will choose to come back.
Anna Janczuk, the founder of a large Polish community organisation in Ealing, west London, told me that most of her close friends had moved back to Poland: "What they value is the close contact with their family. They re-evaluated their choices and priorities."
Add Brexit into the equation, and the old assumption that companies can just hire extra people from Eastern Europe to fill any gaps can no longer be taken for granted.
Anecdotally, Covid has also led to more than a few people to think about what matters to them and to retire early or to leave employment to start a business of their own. Economic "inactivity" has risen during the pandemic, as data from the Office for National Statistics highlights.
These are all developments that make life harder for employers, who would thus expect to pay more to find the workers they need - not just for the pandemic, nor for the pingdemic, but for ever after.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58014256