Author Topic: Latest Stats  (Read 106495 times)

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Offline Ian

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #720 on: October 23, 2021, 07:56:58 pm »
As we approach a worldwide death toll of at least 5m, and in reality nearer12m, it's worth reading this article about how cruise ship companies got it completely and utterly wrong in June last year.
Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #721 on: October 24, 2021, 10:56:03 am »
As we approach a worldwide death toll of at least 5m, and in reality nearer12m, it's worth reading this article about how cruise ship companies got it completely and utterly wrong in June last year.

Ian, sorry I could not get into the above link without signing up, however I did find a BBC story on the Pariah Ship, https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51484625
 
One of my posts at the beginning, was my reaction to flying home potential infected people from Italy to Brize Norton, then coaching them to Liverpool, I was gobsmacked to say the least.


Offline SteveH

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #722 on: October 24, 2021, 04:42:11 pm »
Another Covid-related death has been recorded in North Wales - while a further 410 cases of the virus have been confirmed across the region.

The North Wales death toll since the start of the pandemic is now 1,065 according to Public Health Wales figures published on Sunday (October 24).

The total number of cases in the area since the start of the pandemic is now 77,786, with the biggest increase today in Gwyne

Nationally, a further 3,152 cases were reported today, taking the total across Wales to 418,980 since the start of the pandemic.

The new North Wales deaths were among 12 fatalities reported across the country, meaning the total death toll now stands at 6,086.

Today's update covers the 24 hours up to 9am on Friday.

Data reported by PHW on Mondays now covers the 48 hour period up to 9am on Sunday, meaning it is likely tomorrow's numbers will be around double the usual 24 hour figures.

Betsi Cadwaladr as a whole: 410 new cases - total 77,786

Anglesey: 33 new cases - total 5,771
Conwy: 61 new cases - total 11,735
Denbighshire: 56 new cases - total 11,966
Flintshire: 87 new cases - total 18,873
Gwynedd: 97 new cases - total 10,180
Wrexham: 76 new cases - total 19,261

Infection rate for every 100,000 people in each area for the seven days (week up to October 18):

Anglesey: 474 (down from 509.7)
Conwy: 383.9 (down from 392.5)
Denbighshire: 640.6 (up from 628.0)
Flintshire: 374.8 (up from 365.3)
Gwynedd: 452.8 (up from 451.2)
Wrexham: 368.5 (down from 385.4)

The national average for Wales: 716.9 (up from 681.9)

Offline Ian

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #723 on: October 24, 2021, 07:40:16 pm »
Sorry about that, Steve; I don't subscribe to them, but I simply dismiss the request for cash :-)  Anyhow, here's the writcle:

With passengers falling ill, the ship was denied a port by country after country.

By Michael Smith, Drake Bennett, and K. Oanh Ha
40:48

On March 28 the MS Zaandam sat at anchor off the coast of Panama, its sun decks and swimming pools deserted, the lounges and casino quiet. For the seventh straight day, passengers were confined to their cabins with one of the few things cruises endeavor not to abundantly provide: time alone with dark thoughts. Crew members moved through the narrow hallways delivering meals and medication. Periodically, a doctor or nurse brought another passenger to the Zaandam’s small medical center. As its reception area filled, coughing patients stood in the corridor.

The previous day Captain Ane Smit had come over the intercom and announced what most of his listeners already suspected: Covid-19 was on the ship. Two people had tested positive so far, and four passengers had died. (One of those deaths, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, would turn out not to be from the coronavirus.) In addition, because the ship was carrying the disease, its request to pass through the Panama Canal into the Caribbean had been denied. As Smit made his announcement, 53 passengers and 85 crew members were sick. The ship had been in limbo for almost two weeks, but until now it had at least been moving—up the entire Pacific coast of South America as nation after nation refused to let the passengers ashore. Now it had come to rest. A small Panamanian patrol boat loitered nearby.
The Holland America Line cruise ship MS Zaandam near Panama City.
▲ The Zaandam waits off the coast of Panama. Only after an international pressure campaign was the ship granted permission to transit the canal.
Photographer: Erick Marciscano/Reuters

Among the Zaandam’s 1,200 passengers were two Americans from Missouri. Sitting in their cabin, looking out their sealed porthole at Panama City’s palisade of skyscrapers, Clive and Sharon Hutton found themselves veering from hope to dread—and then regret. A few hundred yards away, the Huttons could see the MS Rotterdam, which had arrived two days earlier. It was a foot shorter than the Zaandam, at 780 feet, but otherwise almost identical—both vessels had the navy blue hull, teak decks, and white superstructure of a Holland America Line ship. The Huttons watched as two orange-and-white tenders shuttled between the ships. The covered boats were bringing over much-needed protective gear and Covid tests, along with doctors, nurses, and crew members who’d volunteered to reinforce their colleagues on the Zaandam. And they were carrying away passengers deemed Covid-free. With each trip, they were separating more of the healthy from the unwell.

That morning, medical personnel in masks, gloves, and gowns had appeared at the Huttons’ cabin on the Dolphin Deck to take their temperatures and have them fill out a questionnaire. Passengers who passed this cursory check were eligible to transfer to the Rotterdam. As far as the couple knew, they’d passed—both were fever-free and felt fine, and people over age 70, as they were, were being given priority. Then, hours later, the medical staff came back and told them to unpack. Lance, as everyone called him, had divulged on his questionnaire that he used a CPAP machine, a device to treat sleep apnea. For reasons he couldn’t understand, that was disqualifying. They had to remain on “the sick ship,” as Lance had started calling it.

“I’m sure many people on board felt the same. If they’d had a chance, they would have gotten out of it”

The Huttons, from the small town of Foristell, had bought their tickets many months in advance. They’d fly to Buenos Aires, spend a couple days in the city, then set sail down the east coast of South America, around Cape Horn, and back up the other side. And, because they had sprung for the extended 31-day option, they’d continue after the first leg ended in San Antonio, Chile, all the way up to the Panama Canal and on to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. The capstone for Lance would be an excursion to Machu Picchu, the 15th century Incan ruin in the Peruvian Andes.

In the weeks before their departure, Lance had monitored the spread of the coronavirus and begun to worry about the trip. He’d followed the cruise ship outbreaks—first on the Diamond Princess in February and then on the Grand Princess days before his own voyage. Princess Cruises, like Holland America, is part of the giant cruise operator Carnival Corp. At 80 and 79 years old, respectively, he and Sharon were squarely in the at-risk population for Covid-19. Lance had wanted to cancel, but Holland America sent him an email on Feb. 26 specifying that refunds were limited to customers who could prove they’d had contact with someone who had the virus or had recently traveled to China. On March 5 he checked again, but the policy hadn’t changed. (On March 6, the day before the Zaandam’s passengers began boarding, Holland America did loosen its cancellation policy. Lance never learned of it.)

And so the couple had gone ahead with the trip. Throwing away $20,000 just felt too extravagant to a retired school superintendent. “I’m sure many people on board felt the same,” he said, speaking by phone as the ship sat in Panama Bay. “If they’d had a chance, they would have gotten out of it.” Now the Huttons just wanted to get home. Word of the deaths had rattled the couple. Lance was particularly worried about Sharon, his wife of 56 years. She had bronchiectasis, a chronic condition that made her susceptible to airway infections. And he’d lost faith in the company that, he now painfully realized, he’d trusted with their lives. “I just don’t think they thought about this very well,” he said. “That’s the only complaint I have.”

By the time the Zaandam made it to port on April 2, its passengers would be some of the only cruisers left on Earth. Some would still be very sick, and not all of them would survive. Two months later, the cruise industry remains shut down and economically staggered—a no-sail order issued by the CDC six days after the Zaandam’s departure has since been renewed through the end of July. But Carnival and Royal Caribbean International, the industry’s two dominant players, tentatively plan to start cruising again on Aug. 1. If the industry keeps to this timeline, ships will be departing and moving thousands from port to port while Covid clusters still burn around the world and a vaccine remains notional. To help customers swallow any misgivings, Carnival has offered rates as low as $28 a day, including food.
Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #724 on: October 25, 2021, 10:12:05 am »
Thanks for that, Ian .......it's the old story, cash over safety, even now the experts are giving warnings about the NHS crisis, but the governments are scared of upsetting businesses, only giving out veiled hints of precautions, instead of a clear message.

Offline Ian

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #725 on: October 25, 2021, 02:21:39 pm »
That's right. Depressing, but what happens when the party of cash gets into power.
Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #726 on: October 25, 2021, 05:24:35 pm »
PUBLIC Health Wales has promised an update of three-days worth of Covid-19 data tomorrow (Tuesday, October 26) after 'technical issues' led to them being unable to publish them today.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #727 on: October 26, 2021, 10:07:04 am »
Conwy

Llanfairfechan & Penmaenmawr: 39 new cases; a rate of 499.7 cases per 100,000 people.
Conwy & Afon Roe: 16 new cases; a rate of 224.2 cases per 100,000 people.
Llanrwst & Betws-y-Coed: 47 new cases; a rate of 546.6 cases per 100,000 people.
Llandudno Junction South & Llasanffraid Glan Conwy: 24 new cases; a rate of 327.0 cases per 100,000 people.
Llandudno Junction North & Deganwy: 14 new cases: a rate of 145.6 cases per 100,000 people.
Llandudno South: 26 new cases; a rate of 371.2 cases per 100,000 people.
Llandudno Town & Gogarth: 26 new cases; a rate of 293.5 cases per 100,000 people.
Penrhyn Bay: 22 new cases; a rate of 353.9 cases per 100,000 people.
Rhos-on-Sea: 22 new cases; a rate of 366.1 cases per 100,000 people.
Colwyn Bay North: 25 new cases; a rate of 403.0 cases per 100,000 people.
Upper Colwyn Bay: 33 new cases; a rate of 435.0 cases per 100,000 people.
Betws-yn-Rhos, Llangernyw & Llansannan: 40 new cases; a rate of 575.2 cases per 100,000 people.
Old Colwyn & Llanddulas: 38 new cases; a rate of 439.1 cases per 100,000 people.
Abergele: 41 new cases; a rate of 377.3 cases per 100,000 people.
Kinmel Bay & Towyn: 37 new cases; a rate of 443.1 cases per 100,000 people.


Data suggests that people under 60 who have not received the Coronavirus vaccine are three times as likely to be hospitalised as vaccinated people in the same group.

Not had the vaccine yet? It’s not too late.

Contact your health board to get yours
https://phw.nhs.wales/topics/latest-information-on-novel-coronavirus-covid-19/coronavirus-contacts/

Offline Ian

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #728 on: October 26, 2021, 10:28:00 am »
I think it's important we stress this:

those who've been fully vaccinated have a 90% less chance of even spreading the disease, let alone catching it.
Vaccination is saving lives: thousands and thousands of them. 
Side effects are extremely rare.


We don't have any misinformation regarding Covid -19 or vaccination on this site but the anti-social network Facebook is full of it, in more ways than one.
Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #729 on: October 26, 2021, 01:42:03 pm »
PUBLIC Health Wales has today released three days worth of Covid-19 figures for Wales.

This follows a technical issue which led to them being unable to publish statistics.

The latest 72-hour edition of the figures issued on Tuesday, October 26, reveal that 5,288 cases of Covid-19 have been recorded in Wales during that time.

A further 31 deaths have also been recorded, taking the tally since the beginning of the pandemic in Wales to 6,117.

746 of the 5,288 cases were reported in North Wales and can be broken down as such:

Anglesey - 59
Conwy - 116
Denbighshire - 136
Gwynedd - 171
Flintshire - 143
Wrexham - 121

Public Health Wales say that not all cases have been recorded as 'new' due to the technical error.

They add that the true number of 'new' cases recorded since the previous report on Sunday, October 24, is likely to be just over 8,000 throughout Wales.

They say the cumulative total has not been affected and data will be 'reconciled' moving forward.

Offline Fester

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #730 on: October 26, 2021, 11:04:06 pm »
I think it's important we stress this:

those who've been fully vaccinated have a 90% less chance of even spreading the disease, let alone catching it.
Vaccination is saving lives: thousands and thousands of them. 
Side effects are extremely rare.


We don't have any misinformation regarding Covid -19 or vaccination on this site but the anti-social network Facebook is full of it, in more ways than one.

Are those figures accurate Ian?
It’s just that I keep hearing the government say that vaccination certainly helps you get a less serious version of Covid, and the ratio of people being hospitalised seems to be down about 70%.
But 90% less likely to catch or spread it, I’ve not seen anything convincing about that.
If it was 90%, wouldn’t we have seen a lot less cases than 45,000 a day?
Genuine question, I’m no anti vaxxer.
They did accost me quite aggressively on the promenade last week though, during their noisy demonstration.


Fester...
- Semper in Excretum, Sole Profundum Variat -

Offline Ian

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #731 on: October 27, 2021, 10:25:13 am »
The figures are from New Scientist, Nature and Scientific American, Fester. Plus I have a pal who's a virologist at Oxford, and she was a member of the trials team there.

This is from the articles:

"People who are fully vaccinated against covid-19 are far less likely to infect others, despite the arrival of the delta variant, several studies show. The findings refute the idea, which has become common in some circles, that vaccines no longer do much to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

“They absolutely do reduce transmission,” says Christopher Byron Brooke at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “Vaccinated people do transmit the virus in some cases, but the data are super crystal-clear that the risk of transmission for a vaccinated individual is much, much lower than for an unvaccinated individual.

What is important to realise, de Gier says, is that the full effect of vaccines on reducing transmission is even higher than 63 per cent, because most vaccinated people don’t become infected in the first place.

De Gier and her team used data from the Netherlands’ contact tracing system to work out the so-called secondary attack rate – the proportion of contacts infected by positive cases. They then worked out how much this was reduced by vaccination, adjusting for factors such as age.

De Gier says they cannot calculate the full reduction in transmission due to vaccination, because they don’t know exactly how much vaccination reduces the risk of infection. But even assuming vaccination only halves the risk of infection, this would still imply that vaccines reduce transmission by more than 80 per cent overall.

Others have worked out the full effect. Earlier this year, Ottavia Prunas at Yale University applied two different models to data from Israel, where the Pfizer vaccine was used (booster shots in Wales are using the Pfizer). Her team’s conclusion was that the overall vaccine effectiveness against transmission was 89 per cent.”

The idea that vaccines are no longer that effective against transmission may derive from news reports in July claiming that vaccinated people who become infected “can carry as much virus as others”. Even if this were true, however, vaccines would still greatly reduce transmission by reducing infections in the first place.

In fact, the study that sparked the news reports didn’t measure the number of viruses in someone directly but relied on so-called Ct scores, a measure of viral RNA. However, this RNA can derive from viruses destroyed by the immune system. “You can measure the RNA but it’s rendered useless,” says Timothy Peto at the University of Oxford.

There are now several lines of evidence that Ct scores aren’t a good measure of the amount of virus someone has. Firstly, the fact that infected vaccinated people are much less likely to infect others. Peto has done a similar study to de Gier using contact tracing data from England and gotten similar results.

Secondly, Peto’s team specifically showed that there is little connection between Ct scores and infectiousness. “It appeared people who were positive after vaccination had the same viral load as the unvaccinated. We thought they were just as infectious. But it turns out you are less infectious,” says Peto. “That’s quite important. People were over-pessimistic."

Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Offline Fester

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #732 on: October 27, 2021, 02:43:05 pm »
Good news then, thanks.... at least 80% reduction.
I’m even more heartened by the fact they used data from The Netherlands, as I don’t believe a single thing that comes out of the U.K. track and trace system.
Fester...
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Offline Ian

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #733 on: October 27, 2021, 03:16:50 pm »
They track published studies, Fester;  which are peer-reviewed, mostly by peers looking to disprove them :)
Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Latest Stats
« Reply #734 on: October 27, 2021, 03:33:13 pm »
Public Health Wales figures released on Wednesday (October 27) report that 2,582 new cases were recorded in the latest 24-hour period.

Of the new cases reported, 318 were in North Wales.

Wrexham 71
Denbighshire 65
Flintshire 60
Gwynedd 50
Anglesey 36
Conwy 36

Sadly, a further five people have died in Wales in the latest 24-hour period having tested positive for Covid-19 in the last 28 days.

6,122 people in Wales have died after a positive test since the start of the pandemic.

2,241,637 people have now had two doses of a coronavirus vaccine.

375,765 people have now received a third booster jab.

The seven-day rolling infection rate in Wales as a whole is now 699.7 cases per 100,000 people. In North Wales, none of the areas have a rate above the national average.