Author Topic: Covid 19  (Read 68790 times)

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Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #330 on: January 18, 2021, 12:30:51 pm »
New figures reveal how many covid patients ended up back in hospital after recovering from virus
The study is yet to be peer-reviewed, but the initial data has made for some alarming reading

Conducted by Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the study found that of the 47,780 people discharged from hospital during the first wave, 29.4 per cent returned to hospital within 140 days.

  cont  https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/new-figures-reveal-how-many-19646120

Offline Ian

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #331 on: January 20, 2021, 12:13:44 pm »
From New Scientist, today:

THE rise and spread of new variants of the coronavirus are seen as ushering in a dangerous new phase of the covid-19 pandemic. But from the virus’s perspective, nothing has changed. It is just doing what comes naturally to viruses: evolving.

It is now well-established that SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus with a large and unusually stable RNA genome, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t change at all. Unlike most other RNA viruses, which are among the most mutation-prone biological entities in the world, SARS-CoV-2’s genome changes very slowly. This is largely because it has a proofreading function that is efficient at eliminating errors during replication, a major source of the genetic variation that we call evolution.

“There’s not masses of evolution occurring, this is a very slow-evolving virus,” says David Robertson at the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research in the UK.

A project called Nextstrain, based at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, compiles all published viral genome sequences and plots them on a family tree. This shows the original virus, called Wuhan-Hu-1, diverging steadily as it spread around the world.

The virus’s average mutation rate remains low and steady at about two mutations per lineage per month, but over time this has given rise to thousands of different lineages. For example, there are more than 4000 different versions of the spike protein that the virus uses to break into host cells and which is the target of most vaccines.

Intriguingly, most of the mutations seem to be induced by the human immune system rather than by RNA replication errors. One arm of our innate immune system is a generalised antiviral weapon that introduces random errors into viral genomes in a bid to neutralise them. It doesn’t always succeed.

Most of the surviving mutations are of no medical significance. Up until now, the virus has been circulating unhindered in a large host population with little immunity, and hence has encountered minimal resistance, or selection pressure as evolutionary biologists call it. The evolution that has occurred is therefore mostly just random genetic drift rather than being the virus adapting.

But not entirely. In May 2020, a new variant with a mutation called 614G started circulating. It seems to be slightly more transmissible than the original virus because of an alteration to its spike protein. About 90 per cent of the viruses now circulating worldwide carry this mutation.

More recently, three other mutants, known as the UK, South African and Brazilian variants, have also started spreading rapidly. All are also thought to have mutations that make them more transmissible, and some might be able to outsmart parts of the immune system, although they don’t seem to be more deadly.

The sudden appearance of these three new variants doesn’t suggest that the virus has upped its mutation rate, says Sudhir Kumar at Temple University in Pennsylvania. They are an inevitable product of time and lots of transmission events between people. Under such circumstances, new variants are bound to arise by chance. Highly transmissible ones have a biological advantage and so will outcompete their more sluggish rivals.

More variants are inevitable. “As the virus mutates, this story will keep repeating itself,” says Sharon Peacock, head of the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium. The big worry is the emergence of “escape mutations” that enable the virus to dodge the immune system or render vaccines or drugs useless.

Such an escape becomes even more likely as we begin to exert selection pressure on the virus in the form of vaccines, natural immunity and drugs. Mutants that can evade these interventions could slip through the net and start circulating wildly, potentially pushing us back towards square one in our efforts to beat the pandemic.

“We are now rolling out vaccination to high-risk groups and this is going to provide a very strong selection pressure,” says Emma Thomson at the University of Glasgow. “We may well see a rapid rise in mutations as a result.”

We will also have to keep an eye out for viruses that can evade natural immunity, she says. Virologists have already discovered variants that are able to partially evade antibodies.

These are a wake-up call. Even though the UK variant, known as B.1.1.7, doesn’t seem to have an escape mutation, the fact that its spike protein is 17 mutations away from the original is “a little bit terrifying”, says Robertson.

“It is a concern that a large number of spike mutations are found in the same strain,” says Kumar.

One potential danger that we can probably stop worrying about is recombination, which occurs when two related coronaviruses mash their genomes together to create a hybrid. 

Two studies scouring thousands of viral genomes have found no evidence that this has occurred.

But escape mutation is a real and present danger. A recent case study highlights what could happen once we put the virus under heavy selection pressure. In May 2020, an immunocompromised patient was admitted to a UK hospital with covid-19. He died of the disease in August. Over the 101-day course of his illness, a team led by Ravindra Gupta at the University of Cambridge repeatedly sampled and sequenced viruses from the patient’s respiratory tract.

The patient was given infusions of an antiviral therapy called convalescent plasma – an antibody-rich blood extract from another person infected with the virus.

Days later, Gupta’s team saw a dramatic rise in a mutant version of the coronavirus and later confirmed that it had partially escaped the therapeutic effects of the plasma. This mutant virus eventually killed the patient.

We mustn’t draw too many conclusions from this single case, says Gupta. The patient was also being treated for cancer and couldn’t mount an effective immune response of his own. But the study shows how quickly and viciously the virus can mutate and escape under selection pressure.

The answer to these threats is surveillance, to flag up and isolate escape mutants before they spiral out of control. The UK’s world-class surveillance system relies on a combination of monitoring and sequencing. Red flags are raised if something unusual happens clinically or epidemiologically, and then geneticists search for mutant viruses that could be responsible.

The new UK variant, for example, was spotted because lockdown restrictions were reducing viral spread everywhere but Kent. Surveillance would also be triggered if vaccinated people or those who had recovered started falling ill, says Kumar.

About 10,000 genomes a week are sequenced in the UK and there are plans to up that to 20,000 by March. The country also has a new body called the G2P-UK National Virology Consortium to keep track of new mutations and warn about potentially dangerous ones.

“Even though this virus is evolving slowly, we do really have to take surveillance very, very seriously,” says Robertson.
Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.


Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #332 on: January 20, 2021, 12:50:15 pm »
Interesting and scary.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #333 on: January 21, 2021, 10:45:41 am »
Sorting through my Bookmark list, I found a link to the Lancet medical journal, and found a new section .......... "The Lancet has created a Coronavirus Resource Centre."  with interesting up to date information .......... This resource brings together content from across the Lancet journals as it is published. All of our COVID-19 content is free to access.

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #334 on: January 22, 2021, 10:09:58 am »
Critical care beds at North Wales hospitals now almost 180% normal capacity
Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board's primary and community service director Dr Chris Stockport broke the news this afternoon

Critical care beds across Ysbyty Gwynedd in Bangor, Ysbyty Glan Clwyd in Bodelwyddan and Wrexham 's Maelor hospital have also reached 90% of the board's "surge capacity" - the amount of extra beds laid on to help meet high demand - leaving 10% currently available.

cont   https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/critical-care-beds-north-wales-19673302

Offline Ian

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #335 on: January 26, 2021, 12:09:23 pm »
The new mutation of the virus is now confirmed as being significantly deadlier. "Four independent teams have now analysed much the same data using various methods and ways of controlling for confounding factors. All concluded that people infected with B.1.1.7 have a higher risk of dying, with two teams finding a 30 per cent increase, one a 60 per increase and one a 90 per cent increase.

“Any way that you do it, you get an estimate that is very similar,” says John Edmunds, also at the LSHTM. While these estimates may not seem that similar, in theory a coronavirus variant could be 500 or even 5000 per cent deadlier.

A more transmissible virus is worse than a deadlier virus, he says. “Unfortunately, it appears this [variant] might be both.”"

Now we hear that all the major vaccine producers are experiencing 'production difficulties'.  Seems like the end to all this may be retreating away from us.
Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.  ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #336 on: January 26, 2021, 02:54:35 pm »
Quote
Posted by: Ian
« on: Today at 12:09:23 PM »     
Now we hear that all the major vaccine producers are experiencing 'production difficulties'

BBC reports..........
Coronavirus: Vaccine supply fears grow amid EU export threat                         https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55805903


Covid-19: Vaccine minister 'confident' of supplies amid production delays       https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55808266

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19 ....................Bomb disposal at Wrexham vaccine factory
« Reply #337 on: January 27, 2021, 03:02:50 pm »
A bomb disposal robot has been deployed at a Wrexham factory that’s at the centre of the UK’s Covid-19 vaccination programme.

North Wales Police has confirmed it is dealing with an “ongoing incident” at the Wockhardt plant on Wrexham Industrial Estate.

Surrounding roads have been sealed off and a cordon set up so that Bomb Squad officers can assess the situation.

The Wockhardt factory is considered a sensitive site given its importance to the UK’s vaccination effort.

As a "fill and finish" site, it bottles vials of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine ready for distribution across the country.

Last November, the factory was visited by Prime Minister Boris Johnson who said the lab could provide “salvation for humanity”.

This lunchtime, Wockhardt UK issued a statement on Twitter about the incident.

The company confirmed it received a suspicious package at its Wrexham plant this morning.

cont https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/everything-know-suspicious-package-incident-19711248

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #338 on: January 28, 2021, 03:32:38 pm »
More on the above 

A man has been arrested after a "suspicious package" was sent to a vaccine factory in Wrexham.

Police have arrested a 53-year-old man from Chatham in Kent after the package sparked a major alert at Wockhardt UK's Covid-19 vaccine factory on Wrexham Industrial Estate on Wednesday.

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/man-arrested-connection-suspicious-package-19719921

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #339 on: January 29, 2021, 09:59:25 am »
One covid jab every five seconds - but still some vaccination concerns in one part of North Wales
The latest data shows a rapid pick-up in the pace - but one 100-year-old lady in Conwy is still waiting for her first dose

Across Wales the figures are:

Powys Teaching Health Board: 14,349 doses – one in 9.2 people.
Hywel Dda University Health Board: 32,360 doses – one in 12 people.
Swansea Bay University Health Board: 36,150 doses – one in 10.8 people.
Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board: 38,196 doses – one in 11.7 people.
Aneurin Bevan University Health Board: 49,126 doses – one in 12.1 people.
Cardiff and Vale University Health Board: 42,166 doses – one in 11.9 people.
Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board: 62,344 first doses – one in 11.2 people

https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/one-covid-jab-every-five-19722259

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #340 on: February 02, 2021, 03:04:45 pm »
Covid: Worst week for coronavirus deaths in north Wales

Covid-19 was involved in 41.5% of all deaths in Wales in the latest week - the highest proportion in the pandemic.
It was also by far the worst week for deaths in north Wales, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures.

Three quarters of the region's 102 deaths were in Wrexham and Flintshire, Covid-19 hotspots in recent weeks.
The figures show there were 447 deaths involving Covid-19 across Wales for the week ending 22 January.

This is 20 fewer than last week, which was the highest recorded during any week of the pandemic.
It was still the third highest total registered during the pandemic but the first time the weekly total has fallen since 4 December.

The total number of deaths occurring involving Covid-19 in Wales has now risen to 6,473 people.

cont  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55902439

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19................Vaccine reserve list
« Reply #341 on: February 04, 2021, 01:14:20 pm »
Covid-19 vaccine reserve list preventing waste due to no-shows at Llandudno's Rainbow Hospital called 'a well-oiled machine'

A county councillor has called a reserve list, preventing vaccination doses from being wasted, “a well-oiled machine” after being given a short-notice appointment.

Conwy county councillor Ronnie Hughes said he and his wife, who live in Llandudno, had been contacted at 6pm because people had not shown up for their vaccination at the town’s Venue Cymru Rainbow Hospital.

He was called at 6pm on Monday evening and by 7pm a large queue had subsided and the couple were vaccinated.
He said: “We jumped at the chance and I cannot fault the operation they have going on there.

“The staff are fantastic. Yes, you have to wait, but not long and there is plenty of seating. In and out in half an hour.
“This is a mammoth operation and to see it being done so expertly on my doorstep makes me proud. I cannot praise everyone involved highly enough.”

“I was very, very impressed in the way everyone was treating everybody else – including those who were waiting. I can’t put it into words.”

A reserve list covering vaccination “no-shows” has helped the country’s largest health board keep wasted doses to around just 300 in total since immunisation began.

Cont https://www.northwalespioneer.co.uk/news/19064859.covid-19-vaccine-reserve-list-preventing-waste-due-no-shows-llandudnos-rainbow-hospital-called-a-well-oiled-machine/

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #342 on: February 05, 2021, 10:16:30 am »
I caught a glimpse on the news last night of a woman returning from South Africa, to the UK,  without having to isolate, did anyone get the full story ?

Experts trace Anglesey's South African Covid variant case - but are still investigating one in Conwy
Public Health Wales said an international link has now been made for the case on the island

cont  https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/experts-trace-angleseys-south-african-19773654

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #343 on: February 06, 2021, 10:42:02 am »
I will certainly be following hygiene measures, as I think a lot of sensible people will. 

Covid hygiene measures, such as wearing masks and social distancing, are likely to remain in place for “foreseeable years to come”, Welsh behaviour experts have warned.

An analysis by the Welsh Government’s Technical Advisory Group (TAG) concluded “personal protective behaviours” must be reinforced even when the pandemic is over, as infection is likely to persist within the population.

Such behaviours also include hand washing, respiratory hygiene and household ventilation.

TAG’s experts say there will be a need to “recalibrate” everyday behaviours, citing the now-standard use of face coverings seen in Asian countries.

In a report to ministers, they said: “It took around 200 years to eradicate smallpox with vaccination, and whilst medical science has greater power to address Covid-19, there will be a likely continued need to establish more effective hygiene behavioural norms for the foreseeable years to come.”

TAG also warned of likely “complacency” by people once they’ve been vaccinated, leading to fewer people wearing face coverings and not distancing, and more mixing of households.

In turn this could prompt “over-confidence” in non-vaccinated people, especially if they believe all vulnerable individuals are “safe” once jabbed.

cont  https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/wearing-face-masks-years-come-19751663

Offline SteveH

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Re: Covid 19
« Reply #344 on: February 08, 2021, 03:10:06 pm »
South Africa has suspended its rollout of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine to healthcare staff, following results from a study which suggested that it was not effective against mild illness caused by the South African variant of Covid-19.

The country had received its first one million doses of the vaccine at the end of January, with plans to roll it out to frontline health workers from the middle of February.

These plans have now been suspended as preliminary research suggested that the vaccine offers only minimal protection against mild to moderate disease from the variant.

A study of around 2,000 people has shown the jab only offers minimal protection against mild disease of the South Africa variant and, due to the young age of participants, could not conclude whether the jab worked against severe disease.

So what does this mean for the UK’s vaccine rollout and hopes of coming out of lockdown?

Mr Argar said booster jabs were already being developed to tackle variants, telling Sky News: “What we would all expect is every year we have our flu jabs, it would not be unreasonable to suggest something similar here.”

The minister said the virus “will always try to outwit us”, adding: “We’ve just got to make sure we get ahead of the game and we outwit it.

cont https://www.northwalespioneer.co.uk/news/19073765.south-africa-variant---need-third-jab-affect-lockdown-plans/