Author Topic: Brexit Debate  (Read 4033 times)

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Ian

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #30 on: March 16, 2018, 10:45:52 AM »
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I don't wish to spoil the hysteria by mentioning facts but...

Looking at the chart shows that the pound was worth less against the Euro than it is today at some point of the year in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. The current value feels lower because of an unusual spike back in 2015.

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But there's another way of reading that chart, Dave. When you say "The current value feels lower because of an unusual spike back in 2015" it's also possible to say "The general trend prior to the Referendum was for a steadily rising pound. The referendum result reversed that trend..."

Statistics, eh?



“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.”   ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

DaveR

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #31 on: March 16, 2018, 10:57:59 AM »
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I don't wish to spoil the hysteria by mentioning facts but...

Looking at the chart shows that the pound was worth less against the Euro than it is today at some point of the year in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. The current value feels lower because of an unusual spike back in 2015.

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But there's another way of reading that chart, Dave. When you say "The current value feels lower because of an unusual spike back in 2015" it's also possible to say "The general trend prior to the Referendum was for a steadily rising pound. The referendum result reversed that trend..."

Statistics, eh?
Not unless you're looking at a different chart to me! The Pound peaked in July 2015, well over 11 months before the EU Referendum took place in June 2016.

Fester

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #32 on: March 16, 2018, 11:53:32 AM »
It’s not just the exchange rate, which has been terrible since the Brexit vote.
It’s steadily increasing prices of fresh produce, and also the threat of availability of said produce.
Therefore having a meal out abroad now is even more costly than Llandudno and that’s saying something!

Like many companies, the one my wife works for has a high degree of E European employees, and they are reliant on migrant labour and swift border crossings for goods.
Her bosses warned that Brexit would severely impact their business.
Now, 18 months on, they have been forced to abandon plans to open a new transport hub in the midlands, and have instead began building it in the Czech Republic.
Business is business after all.
Fester...
- Semper in Excretum, Sole Profundum Variat -

Ian

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #33 on: March 16, 2018, 12:24:41 PM »
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I don't wish to spoil the hysteria by mentioning facts but...

Looking at the chart shows that the pound was worth less against the Euro than it is today at some point of the year in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. The current value feels lower because of an unusual spike back in 2015.

You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

But there's another way of reading that chart, Dave. When you say "The current value feels lower because of an unusual spike back in 2015" it's also possible to say "The general trend prior to the Referendum was for a steadily rising pound. The referendum result reversed that trend..."

Statistics, eh?
Not unless you're looking at a different chart to me! The Pound peaked in July 2015, well over 11 months before the EU Referendum took place in June 2016.

But it was announced  in February 2016, and - historically- each peak has been followed by a fall - about the same as the one which preceded the announcement.  After the announcement, however, the fall continued - and continued. Now, the root causes may differ, but whichever way you look at that graph the referendum is what immediately preceded the drastic falls, and was, therefore, probably was the causal factor.
“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.”   ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

SteveH

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #34 on: June 06, 2018, 12:09:51 PM »
Reading this article, a couple of comments, made me pause........

Recruitment agencies are warning that they cannot secure the number of workers needed by British farmers to pick their fruit and vegetables.
Over half of recruitment companies could not find the labour even in the "quiet" first months of this year, the Association of Labour Providers says.

Ninety-nine percent of seasonal workers on British farms come from Eastern Europe. Two-thirds of these come from Romania and Bulgaria.

30 years after the Romanian Revolution of 1989 and the fall of the communist leader Nicolae Ceausescu, its economy is growing at 6.9%. That's almost three times the rate of Britain's.

"The English pick and choose what they want to do and leave the harder jobs for the foreigners," he told BBC News.
"There are a lot of English people that could work the fields and not let the fruit rot"

"Defra and the Home Office are working closely to ensure the labour needs of the agriculture sector are met once we leave the EU.

"We have been clear that up until December 2020, employers in the agricultural and food processing sectors will be free to recruit EU citizens to fill vacancies and those arriving to work will be able to stay in the UK afterwards."

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Fester

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #35 on: June 06, 2018, 05:52:48 PM »
... and so it came to pass, like I predicted.
Brexit effects will now come more and more to the fore.
The NHS is in the same situation, trying to attract staff from cleaners right up to specialist surgeons.
The net effect of the lack of workers in the field will be two fold.
Lack of availability, and INFLATION!

Entirely predictable for anyone with a brain cell.
Fester...
- Semper in Excretum, Sole Profundum Variat -

DaveR

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #36 on: June 07, 2018, 08:32:43 AM »
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"The English pick and choose what they want to do and leave the harder jobs for the foreigners," he told BBC News.
"There are a lot of English people that could work the fields and not let the fruit rot"
...and that's the problem, nothing to do with Brexit. The idea that the country the size of the UK needs to be dependent upon attracting foreign labour is ridiculous. Pulling in qualified medical staff from poorer countries around the the world smacks almost of colonial arrogance, these staff should be treating sick people in their own countries.



Fester

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #37 on: June 07, 2018, 03:47:29 PM »
We can debate the semantics all day, but the fact remains that we are heading for shortages and high inflation.
This is on top of the current skill and labour shortages in the NHS.
The Brexit effect either causes it, or exacerbates it.
Whichever it is, the fact remains that you and I will still be paying the same higher price for the things we need, if they are available all.
Fester...
- Semper in Excretum, Sole Profundum Variat -

SteveH

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #38 on: August 01, 2018, 12:48:20 PM »
Something that has never crossed my mind, and quite scary, another hidden Brexit problem.

French company Sanofi is beginning to stockpile drugs in preparation for a hard Brexit.
The company is increasing its stocks by four weeks to give it a 14 week supply of medicines in case of any disruption to supply caused by a no-deal Brexit.
Extra supplies of a wide range of products, including insulin, are being built up.
Sanofi is worried about any transport delays following Brexit, as most of its supplies have to cross the Channel.

Wider problem
Last week, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the NHS in England was preparing to stockpile medicines and blood in case the UK left the EU without a deal. He told the Health Select Committee that he had asked the department to work up options for stockpiling by industry"

"We are working with industry for the potential need for stockpiling in the event of a no-deal Brexit," Mr Hancock said last week.

Other pharmaceutical companies have also begun to increase their stock piles. Last month, AstraZeneca said it was increasing drug stockpiles by about 20% in preparation for a no-deal Brexit.

It is not just pharmaceutical companies that are talking about stockpiling.

Plane manufacturer Airbus has said it may have to build supplies as its operates as "just in time" supply chain that replies on frictionless trade across the EU. UK engine maker Rolls-Royce has also warned about the need to stockpile parts.
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Ian

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #39 on: August 01, 2018, 02:09:54 PM »
 The JIT (Just In Time) model is used by all the major supermarkets, too.
“Nothing is so firmly believed as that which we least know.”   ― Michel de Montaigne

Si hoc legere scis, nimis eruditionis habes.

Fester

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #40 on: August 02, 2018, 07:05:51 PM »
The army being utilised and stockpiling of medicines.
Is it really to late bring an end to this lunacy?
Fester...
- Semper in Excretum, Sole Profundum Variat -

SteveH

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2018, 01:10:23 PM »
Some interesting positive comments in this piece.

The luxury goods maker Chanel has told the BBC it's elected to set up its global office in the UK.
For the first time in its 110-year history, the brand is gathering the majority of its global business functions under one roof.

"wanted to simplify the structure of the business and London is the most appropriate place to do that for an international company. London is the most central location for our markets, uses the English language and has strong corporate governance standards with its regulatory and legal requirements".   You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login

SteveH

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #42 on: September 18, 2018, 12:37:15 PM »
I wasn't sure if this would interest anyone, but at the end of the piece I noticed over 1,000 comments, so...........

EU workers coming to the UK should be given "no preference" for visas after Brexit, says a new report.

The Migration Advisory Committee also recommends that it should be easier for higher-skilled workers to migrate to the country.
It has called on the government to scrap a limit on highly-skilled workers altogether - currently 20,700 each year from non-EU countries.
The government has said it will "carefully consider" the proposals.

The MAC was asked to do the research in July 2017 by then Home Secretary Amber Rudd. It is thought the report will shape the government's post-Brexit immigration policy.
It comes as latest figures showed that net migration from the EU was at its lowest level since 2012 - with the number of EU citizens coming to look for work down by a third to 37,000 and overall net migration at 282,000.

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PS If you are still interested  :-\
What British people think about Brexit now
By Sir John Curtice
Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University

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I really must get out more.  ;)
Honda: No-deal Brexit 'would cost tens of millions.
Supply chain risks
Like other carmakers in Britian, Honda only stores about an hour's worth of components at its Swindon plant to keep costs down.

Instead it relies on about 350 truckloads of parts that are delivered from the continent each day.
Mr Howells said the loss of "frictionless trade" in this supply chain would harm its production output and competitiveness.
"If we are shipping and competing against a European manufacturer in Europe, they are not incurring those tariffs," he said.
"And in the UK it would be the componentry cost that would be the main additional burden we would have to carry for UK customers."
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SteveH

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #43 on: November 13, 2018, 12:25:02 PM »
AAAAAaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaBisto         DONT PANIC.

Bisto owner plans Brexit stockpile.
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SteveH

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Re: Brexit Debate
« Reply #44 on: Today at 01:58:25 PM »
Britons will have to pay €7 (£6.30) every three years to travel to EU countries, as a consequence of Brexit.

The European Commission has confirmed that while UK travellers will not need a visa, they will need to apply for and buy another document.

It is called an ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System) and although not launched yet, is expected to come into force in 2021.
The travel requirement is not just for the UK but for many non-EU countries.   You are not allowed to view links. Register or Login