Obstacles to Tourism in Llandudno

[snowcap]

could,nt resist, your more than welcome

[Fester]

Quite often the weather forcasts predict bad weather and often the weather turns out to be much better, by that time of cause day trippers have decided not to bother coming! How much does that cost the economy I wonder?

It has a dramatic effect Andy,
Take today for example, a terrible forecast, so the town was very quiet indeed.  Thursday is usually the busiest weekday by some margin.

If the forecast is bad, people don't travel,  if the forecast is good but turns out bad, the town is still quiet as everyone leaves early or stays indoors. (arcades, Wetherspoons etc)

I have been discussing with many other traders just how quiet the town has been over the last 2 weeks, when it is usually heaving. 
My theory is that the previous months heatwave brought everyone to the seaside earlier than usual to take advantage of the spell of good weather, (and we all did quite well out of it) ... but there is limited money around these days, and people will not make multiple visits.

A bumper July has been followed by a disappointing August, and that is true for everyone I speak to.

[Ian]

Although the weather forecast can have an effect on impulse visitors, there are other factors that combine to make yesterday the start of the decline in the tourist season generally for Llandudno. Yesterday was the first set of exams results day across England and Wales, and that has always resulted in a fall-off of visitor numbers. It takes out of circulation any families with children aged 17 - 18, most teachers of sixth form students and anyone concerned with University applications - which is actually a fair few.  The trade-off is a fair few grandparents taking the younger siblings out to keep them out of the way.

Next Thursday is the slightly less significant, but equally huge GCSE results day, when anyone in England and Wales aged 15 - 16 finds out their results and then applies to go to a sixth form, somewhere.  Between them, with all the families involved, the rush for applications, the preparations for going onto the next phase of the education and all the paperwork involved, accommodation sought and grants being applied for yesterday has always been the cut-off for the high season (as it used to be called).

Next weekend's bank holiday is the last hurrah for Llandudno and the tourist season, and then we're back to the package tour visitors, the upcoming Turkey and Tinsel weeks but - importantly - the older visitors who dislike the crowds during the main season.

[Ian]

It's probably worth adding that there's no clear picture of what percentage impulse visitors add to the overall tourism during the season. An impulse visitor is one who, by definition, simply decided to "go out somewhere" in the morning,  Up to, but not including, yesterday, there have been queues of vehicles on the A470 from the roundabout to Pydew down to Black Cat between 1630 and 1730.  Yesterday was the first time I saw almost no queue, so impulse visitors were certainly down. 

Although this group doesn't benefit the hotels that much, it does generally help Llandudno. Most have to eat, so cafes tend to do well, and in fact cafes are probably the most reliable indicators of visitor traffic overall. The other indicators are the old stalwarts: the Orme Trams - which still provide a unique experience - and possibly the Summit complex.

It is this group - impulse visitors, however, that seems most affected by grotty forecasts, as - if they have a day off to go out somewhere - the weather forecast is probably the determining factor about how that day should be spent.  But it badly needs researching, so we can get some idea of the accuracy or otherwise of the surmise.

[Fester]

All those elements that you mention Ian, they certainly add to the cumulative effect of downturn from now on.

However, that simply compounds the downturn from the earlier weeks which has been significantly down on any of the last 4 years.

I believe that the new beach at Colwyn Bay, and the efforts that NW tourist board have put in to get people there have had a significant impact on Llandudno.
Many of my 'regulars' have spent the previous days in CB, (many had never been there before)
Many one-off visitors from England are telling me that Llandudno is a quick stop off, as they were really attracted to Colwyn Bay by adverts and posters in their own area.

[Bri Roberts]

Up to, but not including, yesterday, there have been queues of vehicles on the A470 from the roundabout to Pydew down to Black Cat between 1630 and 1730.  Yesterday was the first time I saw almost no queue, so impulse visitors were certainly down. 

Ian, we went to Afon Conwy to eat last night and we got caught up in a traffic queue from the top of the hill right down to the Black Cat roundabout just before 5.30pm so I am afraid yesterday was no different.

[Ian]

I wonder how the cafes in CB are doing, then?  Of the kiosks still open, have they reported an upturn in business? It'd be interesting to know the full effect of the work being done and the money being spent on advertising it.  CB has always had the better beach, of course, but in the late '80s and throughout the '90s the tourist trade all but disappeared.

It's interesting, however;  for as long as I can remember (and throughout my involvement with the Extravaganza from its inception) people have always said the same sorts of things: "Oh, bookings are well down on last year" was the commonest and - curiously - a friend who owns a hotel in Betws has - without fail - said the same thing every year since I've known him in the mid '90s.  Now, we accept there's a long-term deterioration in the holiday trade for Llandudno and the financial situation in which we find ourselves now (and which, to be fair, seems to be a regular feature of the UK for as long as I can remember) doesn't help matters, but there's possibly a reason why new cafes are springing up all over the place, and why the Clarence is being renovated. The Clarence work is going to cost a fair bit, I'd have thought, and I don't image the bean-counters will have gone ahead without researching the area and visitor patterns very carefully beforehand.

[Ian]

Ian, we went to Afon Conwy to eat last night and we got caught up in a traffic queue from the top of the hill right down to the Black Cat roundabout just before 5.30pm so I am afraid yesterday was no different.

Interesting... That suggests Fester is wrong, then, in his assumption the season was down. If there were still that number of visitors, maybe they're all on second trips and avoiding the pier, perhaps?    WWW

In all fairness, I should probably have added that the queues at the time we drove the road were much lower, and that was about 1630.  On previous weeks, they've been much longer at that time.

[Bri Roberts]

That’s nothing new, Ian.

There are lots me and Fester disagree on.

Even we have often given the pier a miss this summer as it is always so busy when we reach the pier gates.

Perhaps, pedestrians don’t get as far as Fester’s Emporium on the Pier because they turn back if they begin to meet an obstruction or a bottleneck.

[Merddin Emrys]

Back to the weather forcasts, twice in the last few months we were going to classic car shows, both out of the area, but due to the weather forcasts on the day decided not to go. We later found out that both days were ok and wish we had gone!  :rage: I think the forecasters are being over pessimistic ever since the big storm of 1987!

[Ian48]

there's possibly a reason why new cafes are springing up all over the place, and why the Clarence is being renovated. The Clarence work is going to cost a fair bit, I'd have thought, and I don't image the bean-counters will have gone ahead without researching the area and visitor patterns very carefully beforehand.

I tend to agree with you on this.  Investors aren't daft and, especially during times like this, they aren't going to throw good money after bad in the way that they used to at the height of the economy.

I am starting to think that perhaps Llandudno is being seen as a safe investment in some respects.  There are groups with lots of money and they have sat on it for far too long and many want to start investing again (hence the Clarence).  You come to Llandudno and you see a retail occupancy rate of 92% (I read that somewhere, but I know there are a few charity shops in the mix there) and hotels which are doing rather well and look smart and you think 'this is a safe bet' - maybe that's why something might soon be happening with the Tudno Castle as well.  It has a large elderly population (who let's face it are far better off than most other people in society, no cuts to pensions, free travel etc) and so there is a constant stream of money there.

I have  been around and about recently and met people from all over the country and I must say that ,when I say where I am from, more and more people are saying things like 'ooh I saw that on TV the other day - looks lovely', or 'there's quite a buzz about that place at the moment', or 'isn't that having a bit of a renaissance these days' (all these are genuine I assure you). 

What we need is to capitalise on that and get investors investing and visitors visiting.     

[Merddin Emrys]

but - importantly - the older visitors who dislike the crowds during the main season.

I must admit I do not like big crowds, although strangely I enjoy the extravaganza in spite of the crowds, we just drive there and park early ready to look around it!

[Ian]

I think the forecasters are being over pessimistic ever since the big storm of 1987!

Ah yes - the 'Fish' effect, as those in the trade call it :-)))  No, I think you're right. The various ';yellow alerts' we've had in the past few weeks have all come to nought. And few are aware as to just how little rain actually falls on Llandudno compared with - say, Llanrwst.

[Blongb]

The main trouble with local weather forecasting is that it's all done from the Met office in Bracknell. Data is collected from remote sites around the county. This is then feed into their all seeing and all knowing computer so that the clever forecasters in Berkshire can tell us what our weather is going to be.

Our local weather reporting station is 8 miles away on the B5106 down the Conway Valley so it's no wonder that our coastal forecast is so often wrong. This centralised system does not have the capacity to take into account localised micro climates which produces major variations in our local weather patterns.

Meteorology is the only inexact science where they get the forecast wrong in excess of 60% of the time and people still think they are doing a good job   

[DaveR]

I was talking to the Llandudno manager of a national coffee shop chain only last week, and he said that the previous two weeks trading had been their best ever.