Just trying to ponder the thread heading.
Computers weren't commonplace when I was in school (I mean there were things like computer science degrees but no computers in my school and I think home computing was mostly an area for electronics hobbyists with things like the Sinclair ZX 81 available in kit form and just about anything else needing a fair amount of wealth).
My first personal encounter with a computer came in the early 80s when I bought a second hand Commadore Vic 20. At the time, I sort of envisaged a new world where everyone would be (programming wise) computer literate and I feared that even in my early 20s, I would be left behind. I didn't really do much with the Vic but at least learned to string a few lines of BASIC together.
The change I envisaged didn't really happen. This was the era when the BBC had a program presented by Ian McNaugh-Davis, the BBC computer came out, there was the Sincliar Spectrum and the Commadore 64…
When I've read on this subject elsewhere, it is clear to me that there were people who were able to turn these humble type beginnings all the way to being very successful programmers. But suspect that for the majority they were just “toys”. I think we probably have to wait until the 2000s and the introduction of cheap single board computers (eg the Raspberry PI) and microcontroller boards (eg. the Arduino) but I'm not sure how these are working out in terms of bringing many to the computer industry.
I had some experience using a CP/M system writing up some stuff for our sites BS5750 using something like Wordstar 2.0 but I suppose for most, the next leap was the PC clone (others may be able to tell me where the Apple Mac, etc. fits in – I'm not dismissing it, just haven't come into contact with one…). All of a sudden, people were able to get “business machines” in the home – my first was an Amstrad PC1512 – mine had twin 5 ¼ floppies and a whopping 512K of RAM) and later along that line, Windows came in (I think with this Apple already had a GUI…) making things more accessible to more people.
I guess for me, although say '98 is late, the next big change for me was The Internet. It was less of a market place and more focused on knowledge, I think, back in those days.
Next, for me was getting fed up with proprietary software, what seemed to me like the control of a couple of software companies, etc. so since say about 2002 (SUSE 9.2) have used Linux as my/our (my 80+ year old parents use it too) primary O/S.
I suppose the last one for me to date is another move/additional gadget one that affected the masses. That is the presence of the mobile devices. On the personal level, while we do have and use a couple, I'm not sure I particularly took to them. I can write a simple Android app but I don't get being connected all the while with say Facebook messages, Twitter or (even though I do play tenor banjo, manolin, guitar and still a bit of melodeon) being permanently plugged in to music…
I probably (although some would say I am anyway…) turned out a bit of an oddball. Through it all in various degrees of (in)ability, I can make use of Java, python, php, C, etc for simpler projects. although I'm very much “if I have a need” rather than a dedicated waning to learn more coder. I don't fit the pure users categories either.
One thing is for sure though, there have been changes but not reaally in the way I'd imagined would be when I bought the Vic 20.